Get Real : Why people are not out on the streets
First posted 02:01am (Mla time) Mar 25, 2006
By Solita Collas-Monsod
Inquirer
Editor's Note: Published on Page A10 of the March 25, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer
FOR the opposition members who crow over the latest Pulse Asia survey -- which shows 65 percent of Filipinos think that ousting President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is the best thing that can happen to the country -- take note: The same survey reveals that 81 percent of Filipinos think that ousting Ms Arroyo is the worst thing that can happen to us.
How is this? Does this imply that Filipinos can't make up their mind or/and that the survey can't be relied upon?
As mentioned in last week's column, the survey respondents were asked which of 10 political scenarios, presented to them in a list, constituted the most beneficial -- the one that would best serve the national interest. Multiple answers were not allowed.
Five of the scenarios had to do with Ms Arroyo's resignation and various possible aftermaths: (1) special presidential election; (2) Vice President Noli De Castro taking over; (3) the Vice President resigning and the Senate president taking over until the holding of special elections; (4) a temporary group or "junta" taking over to prepare for elections to choose a new president or prime minister; and (5) the Vice President taking over temporarily while preparing for a new government under a new Constitution.
Two of the scenarios had to do with coups, after which: (6) the military and the police forces decide which group of politicians govern; and (7) the military and the police themselves directly wield political power.
One scenario had (8) a foreign government getting involved and installing in power its Filipino allies.
The last two scenarios had to do with the Arroyo administration staying in power (9) until it completes its mandate under the Constitution; and (10) until the Constitution is changed and a parliamentary government takes over before 2010.
The 65 percent figure (representing those who believe that Ms Arroyo's ouster is the best scenario) was obtained by adding up the respondents who chose any one of the first eight scenarios: resignation, coup, or foreign intervention. (Although the inclusion of foreign intervention as an oust-Arroyo scenario is puzzling -- isn't it possible that big brother might want to keep Ms Arroyo?)
Next, the respondents were presented with the same 10-scenario set, but this time they were asked to choose the scenario they considered the worst, that is, the most inimical to the national interest. The percentage of respondents who chose one of the same first eight scenarios added up to 81 percent. And this explains our seemingly paradoxical findings: that 65 percent of Filipinos think ousting Ms Arroyo is the best thing that can happen to the Philippines, while a greater majority (81 percent) thinks that ousting Ms Arroyo is the worst thing that can happen to the country.
Does this mean that the survey results are not to be relied on? The answer is no. There is nothing wrong with Pulse Asia's survey methodology -- questions were pre-tested, the survey used a multi-stage probability sample with a 3-percentage-point margin of error either way on the national level at the 95 percent confidence level, i.e., if 40 percent of the respondents think that coups are the worst possible scenarios, that means that 95 percent of the time, the true percentage of respondents would lie between 37 percent and 43 percent.
If there is any beef on my part, it would be that (a) lumping together the results of the various ouster scenarios implies a homogeneity to the responses that is not there -- which is why one is confronted with seemingly paradoxical results; and that (b) if Pulse Asia made the observation that 65 percent of Filipinos thought that the eight ouster scenarios were the best, it should have also pointed out that 81 percent of Filipinos thought that these eight ouster scenarios were the worst.
Does this mean that Filipinos are fickle? Again, the answer is "No." It merely shows that one man's meat can be another man's poison. Fifty-nine percent of Filipinos may want her to resign, but they are divided as to the second part of the proposition -- on the post-Arroyo scenarios. One respondent that thinks that resignation followed by special elections is ideal may also think that resignation followed by a junta is the pits. Or, one who thinks that Ms Arroyo should resign may have a violent objection to her ouster by coup.
Which is what the survey results show: 59 percent of Filipinos think any of the five resignation scenarios is best, 4 percent think the two coup scenarios are best, and 2 percent think that foreign intervention is best-for a total of 65 percent. On the other hand, 29 percent of Filipinos think resignation is worst, 40 percent think coups are worst, and 12 percent think that foreign intervention is worst-for a total of 81 percent. See why adding up the various scenarios can be counterproductive?
The survey results also provide an explanation to the question of Amando Doronila: If 65 percent of Filipinos want Ms Arroyo out, why aren't they out on the streets? Because, first, they are hopelessly divided on what the post-Arroyo scenario should be (the average response for each scenario was less than 8 percent, with a high of 16 percent and a low of 1 percent, plus or minus the margin of error), and they may not want to go out unless the resignation aftermath is their favored scenario. The second reason is that romancing the military as part of an ouster attempt is the kiss of death for popular support -- while 19 percent of Filipinos think that Ms Arroyo's continuing in office is the pits, more than double (40 percent) think that military coups carry that distinction.
Yet, leaders of the oust-Gloria movement make no secret of their courting the military, and they are upset that people aren't rallying around them. Hellooo!
First posted 02:01am (Mla time) Mar 25, 2006
By Solita Collas-Monsod
Inquirer
Editor's Note: Published on Page A10 of the March 25, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer
FOR the opposition members who crow over the latest Pulse Asia survey -- which shows 65 percent of Filipinos think that ousting President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is the best thing that can happen to the country -- take note: The same survey reveals that 81 percent of Filipinos think that ousting Ms Arroyo is the worst thing that can happen to us.
How is this? Does this imply that Filipinos can't make up their mind or/and that the survey can't be relied upon?
As mentioned in last week's column, the survey respondents were asked which of 10 political scenarios, presented to them in a list, constituted the most beneficial -- the one that would best serve the national interest. Multiple answers were not allowed.
Five of the scenarios had to do with Ms Arroyo's resignation and various possible aftermaths: (1) special presidential election; (2) Vice President Noli De Castro taking over; (3) the Vice President resigning and the Senate president taking over until the holding of special elections; (4) a temporary group or "junta" taking over to prepare for elections to choose a new president or prime minister; and (5) the Vice President taking over temporarily while preparing for a new government under a new Constitution.
Two of the scenarios had to do with coups, after which: (6) the military and the police forces decide which group of politicians govern; and (7) the military and the police themselves directly wield political power.
One scenario had (8) a foreign government getting involved and installing in power its Filipino allies.
The last two scenarios had to do with the Arroyo administration staying in power (9) until it completes its mandate under the Constitution; and (10) until the Constitution is changed and a parliamentary government takes over before 2010.
The 65 percent figure (representing those who believe that Ms Arroyo's ouster is the best scenario) was obtained by adding up the respondents who chose any one of the first eight scenarios: resignation, coup, or foreign intervention. (Although the inclusion of foreign intervention as an oust-Arroyo scenario is puzzling -- isn't it possible that big brother might want to keep Ms Arroyo?)
Next, the respondents were presented with the same 10-scenario set, but this time they were asked to choose the scenario they considered the worst, that is, the most inimical to the national interest. The percentage of respondents who chose one of the same first eight scenarios added up to 81 percent. And this explains our seemingly paradoxical findings: that 65 percent of Filipinos think ousting Ms Arroyo is the best thing that can happen to the Philippines, while a greater majority (81 percent) thinks that ousting Ms Arroyo is the worst thing that can happen to the country.
Does this mean that the survey results are not to be relied on? The answer is no. There is nothing wrong with Pulse Asia's survey methodology -- questions were pre-tested, the survey used a multi-stage probability sample with a 3-percentage-point margin of error either way on the national level at the 95 percent confidence level, i.e., if 40 percent of the respondents think that coups are the worst possible scenarios, that means that 95 percent of the time, the true percentage of respondents would lie between 37 percent and 43 percent.
If there is any beef on my part, it would be that (a) lumping together the results of the various ouster scenarios implies a homogeneity to the responses that is not there -- which is why one is confronted with seemingly paradoxical results; and that (b) if Pulse Asia made the observation that 65 percent of Filipinos thought that the eight ouster scenarios were the best, it should have also pointed out that 81 percent of Filipinos thought that these eight ouster scenarios were the worst.
Does this mean that Filipinos are fickle? Again, the answer is "No." It merely shows that one man's meat can be another man's poison. Fifty-nine percent of Filipinos may want her to resign, but they are divided as to the second part of the proposition -- on the post-Arroyo scenarios. One respondent that thinks that resignation followed by special elections is ideal may also think that resignation followed by a junta is the pits. Or, one who thinks that Ms Arroyo should resign may have a violent objection to her ouster by coup.
Which is what the survey results show: 59 percent of Filipinos think any of the five resignation scenarios is best, 4 percent think the two coup scenarios are best, and 2 percent think that foreign intervention is best-for a total of 65 percent. On the other hand, 29 percent of Filipinos think resignation is worst, 40 percent think coups are worst, and 12 percent think that foreign intervention is worst-for a total of 81 percent. See why adding up the various scenarios can be counterproductive?
The survey results also provide an explanation to the question of Amando Doronila: If 65 percent of Filipinos want Ms Arroyo out, why aren't they out on the streets? Because, first, they are hopelessly divided on what the post-Arroyo scenario should be (the average response for each scenario was less than 8 percent, with a high of 16 percent and a low of 1 percent, plus or minus the margin of error), and they may not want to go out unless the resignation aftermath is their favored scenario. The second reason is that romancing the military as part of an ouster attempt is the kiss of death for popular support -- while 19 percent of Filipinos think that Ms Arroyo's continuing in office is the pits, more than double (40 percent) think that military coups carry that distinction.
Yet, leaders of the oust-Gloria movement make no secret of their courting the military, and they are upset that people aren't rallying around them. Hellooo!
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